_0.thumbnail.GIF "Two hurricanes: This satellite image, captured 8/30/05, shows Hurricane Iris in the central Atlantic Ocean, with Tropical Storm Karen to the southeast. (The original image, from which this is cropped, also showed Hurricane Humberto moving northeast across the Atlantic.)")
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Gray expects 17 named storms this year, 5 of which will be hurricanes rated at Category 3 or higher. According to the Associated Press,
"The probability of a major hurricane making landfall on the U.S. coast this year: 74 percent, compared with the average of 52 percent over the past century, [Gray] said."
(Each year, the group from Colorado State University and a group from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) independently generate hurricane predictions. Last year, both Gray's and the government's forecasts overestimated the number and ferocity of the year's hurricanes.)
So what's "normal"?
The Colorado State group defines an average season as:
- 9.6 tropical storms;
- 5.9 hurricanes;
- and 2.3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
NOAA defines an average season as:
- 6-14 named storms;
- 4-8 hurricanes;
- and 1-3 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher).
2005 was a record season, with 28 named storms, and 15 hurricanes. 4 of those hit the US coast (including Katrina and Rita). 2006 was a "near-average" season, with 10 named storms, 5 hurricanes. 2 of them were major, but none hit the US coast.
Last year, though, El Nino helped calm hurricanes with winds that pulled the storm systems apart. This year, a weak El Nino effect has already dissipated, making the formation of major storms more likely.
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