Dear California, In case you forgot, it’s “when,” not “if.”
There's a 30% chance: That a strong earthquake will blow California 70 years back in time.Courtesy Nathan CallahanA recent comprehensive study has given the probabilities of major cities in California suffering an earthquake of 6.7 magnitude or greater in the next 30 years.
The “Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast” predicts that, as a whole, there is a 99% chance that California will have a major earthquake sometime within the next 3 decades. As dramatic as this is, I’m not sure that it’s news. Show me a study that predicts California breaking off from the 48 before Christmas, and you got my interest, but this? Meh.
The UCERF does, however, give specific likelihoods for cities having big quakes, information which will be useful for policy makers determining earthquake insurance rates, local building codes, and emergency planning. The Los Angeles area, for instance, has a 67% chance of a 6.7 or greater quake in the next 30 years, and the SF Bay area has a 63% likelihood of such an incident.
As a point of reference, a 6.7 magnitude quake has the energy equivalent of 5,600,000 tons of dynamite exploding underground. The Northridge earthquake had a magnitude of 6.7, and it injured thousands of people, and caused 12.5 billion dollars in property damage to the L.A. area.
As a point of reference for the probabilities, there is approximately 65% chance that I will purchase a bag of generic brand frosted miniwheats sometime in the next three days. There’s a 99% chance that I will see a golden retriever in that time frame. It is 100% likely that I will stick my finger in my nose in the next 30 seconds… done. Now you know how that kind of thing works.
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Thats crazy but it still might not happen because there is still that 1% that it wont happen but the chances are in the favor of it happening and i want to be there to see it happen when California will split from the United States.
Man This Is Why Im Glad I Live In MN
I didnt know they could calculate an earthquake with in the next thirty years and calculate how big the earth quke really is or about the size its suppose to be and there will be after shocks through out the nation wow thats a really big earthquake
If this was me and I lived in cali right now I would leave. Because I would not want to be there when it hits. I would say thanks for the notice and b out.
Twila Turnage
An earthquake thats really horrible.. and to know that you are for sure to have 1, is even more terrible.!
MSNBC has an interesting feature, complete with photos, about nine of the most horrific earthquakes in recorded history.
You can follow the link below the slideshow to get to an interactive about what causes earthquakes.
And i was think about moving there
it would be sad but entertaining... saying that is rather insensitive isn't it.... But now i know that i'm better off where i am and I'm not in a hurry to move on over to California...
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