It seems that one of the coolest places in the world is heating up. Scientists report that the world's largest peat bog in
Western Siberia is undergoing a thaw that could dramatically speed up the rate of global warming. Researchers recently returned from the area report that the peat is melting for the first time since it formed at the end of the last ice age, around 11,000 years ago. Over the last three to four years, the area—about the size of France and Germany combined—has turned from a barren expanse of frozen peat to a landscape of mud and lakes.
What does the melt mean? The peat bog stores an enormous amount of methane, a greenhouse gas twenty times more potent than carbon dioxide. And scientists believe the area holds some 70 billion tons of methane, about a quarter of all the methane stored in the ground around the world! Scientists studying global warming are concerned that the melting bog could turn out to be an environmental "tipping point" that could speed up the rate of global warming. As of 2001, an intergovernmental panel on climate change predicted a rise in global temperatures of 1.4C to 5.8 C between 1990 and 2100, but this estimate only considered known greenhouse gas emissions. The peat bog is an anomaly; scientists predict that its melt over the next 100 years could release enough methane to double atmospheric levels of the gas, leading to a 10% to 25% increase in global warming.
Scientists are urging that predictions of future global temperatures be revised upwards. As it stands, western Siberia is heating up faster than anywhere in the world, experiencing a rise of some 3C in the past 40 years.
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