NOAA flood prediction: Up and up.
Courtesy NOAAWhen I woke up this morning and checked the NOAA flood forecast for the downtown Saint Paul station it was at 19.7 feet above the normal stage. Yikes, the forecast still keeps going up. The river is predicted to crest on March 24th (next Wednesday).
Other flood related resources from my morning browsing:
The StarTribune visits the NOAA, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office, in Chanhassen, MN. The scientists at NOAA explain what's different about this year's snow melt...complete with some classic Minnesota accents.
Check out what downtown Saint Paul looked like in the 2001 Mississippi River flood. So far, no one's predicting this year's food will be as bad as that historic spring melt, when the river crested at 23.67 feet.
And, for purely nostalgic purposes, here's a pic of Minnesota Governor Karl Rolvaag (he's in front of the guy with a bag on his head), President Lyndon Johnson, and Senator Walter Mondale (looking quite dashing back in the day) standing dangerously close to the river in the really bad 1965 Mississippi river flood. The river crested at 26 feet that year.
Check out our full feature on the 2010 Mississippi River flooding.
Tags : The Mississippi River here in Saint Paul is currently forecasted to crest at 19.8 feet next Wednesday and was measured at 12.9 feet at 7:00 this morning (Friday). All these river height numbers got me thinking about a really good question someone asked me last year about just what these numbers mean and how they are measured.
Stream gauge location: Readings of the Mississippi River at downtown St. Paul are taken by instruments here.
Courtesy USGS
Here is an explanation: The Mississippi here in Saint Paul started being measured way back in 1893. The actual location of the measurement station is right by the High Bridge on the west side of the river. Currently the station is operated by the US Geological Survey and the US Army Corps of Engineers. At the time that the station was established, an arbitrary 0 measuring point was chosen (probably the bottom of the channel at the time). When the river reaches 14 feet at this station it is pretty much flowing above its banks in the vicinity of the gauge. All this is to say that the gauge numbers aren't really measuring anything specific about the river other than its height above a point established over a 100 years ago. This means that gauge readings can only be compared to other readings at the same gauge.
Kate's photos, 3/18 (2): Look across the river to the floodwall: thats the high-water mark for the 1965 flood, the highest in recorded history. That year, the river crested here in downtown St. Paul at 26.01' and spelled the end for the communities down on the river flats.
Courtesy Kate Hintz
So if you call up your friends and family in Fargo/Moorhead today to compare notes about who is experiencing the worst flooding, you'll find that your Mississippi River measurement of 12.9 feet doesn’t look impressive by the measurement of over 35 feet at Fargo. And, your 12.9 feet will seem straight up puny compared to the 677 feet the Mississippi is flowing today at Prairie Island, Minnesota, where the river is measured against elevation.
For details on just how river gauges work, check out this explanation the US Geological Society offers.
Noteworthy flood heights in Saint Paul:
14.0 Portions of the Lilydale park area begin to experience flooding.
17.5 Harriet Island begins to become submerged.
18.0 Warner Road may become impassable due to high water.
19.8 Forecasted crest
26.4 Record 1965 crest!
Want to learn more about floods and the Mississippi River? Stop by the Mississippi River Visitor Center in the lobby of the Science Museum and talk to a National Park Ranger!
Check out our full feature on the 2010 Mississippi River flooding.
Watching the river, 3/18/10
in Earth and Space Science, Physical Science, The Water Cycle, Weather and Climate, and Forces of Nature
If you're visiting the Science Museum of Minnesota, look out the windows from the Mississippi River Gallery on level 5. If you're in downtown St. Paul, stop by the museum and look at the river from the overlook on Kellogg Plaza. (City officials are asking folks not to flock to areas where barriers are going up - especially Harriet Island - but the view from in or around the museum is spectacular and safe.)
Kate's photos, 3/18 (3): Looks peaceful, doesn't it? Still, the city is warning people to stay off of the river, out of the low-lying parks, and away from Harriet Island and Water Street.
Courtesy Kate Hintz
The Mississippi is going up FAST today, and forecasters expect that the river will officially reach "flood stage" by early this afternoon. (It's 10:45am, and the river's at 11.67'. It's risen a foot and a half in the last 24 hours, should reach 12' ("action stage") pretty soon, and 14' ("flood stage") by late today.
Kate's photos, 3/18 (2): Look across the river to the floodwall: that's the high-water mark for the 1965 flood, the highest in recorded history. That year, the river crested here in downtown St. Paul at 26.01' and marked the end for the communities then down on the river flats.
Courtesy Kate Hintz
Kate's photos, 3/18 (1): Shepard/Warner roads will close from Chestnut Street to US 61 starting Saturday morning, and could remain closed for weeks. Take your river sightseeing drive/bike ride/walk before then!
Courtesy Kate Hintz
So what's going on around the river?
- The city has closed all city boat launches and temporarily banned all recreational boating within the city limits.
- Water Street will be entirely closed, starting this afternoon.
- Hidden Falls and Lilydale regional parks are closed.
- Flood barriers are going up at the St. Paul downtown airport and at Harriet Island.
- Harriet Island will close once the river reaches 17'.
- Warner/Shepard Roads will be closed from Chestnut Street to US 61 starting Saturday morning in preparation for the construction of a temporary levee that could withstand river levels to 26'. These roads could be closed for weeks, depending on the extent of the flooding.
Here's the latest hydrology graph:
3/18 hydrology graph, 10:15am
Courtesy USGS
Check out our full feature on the 2010 Mississippi River flooding.
High and fast
in Earth and Space Science, Math, The Water Cycle, Weather and Climate, and Forces of Nature
Look out the window or walk down the street to nearly any river or stream in Minnesota right now and you are likely to observe two things about the river:
- it is getting deeper (or “rising” in relation to the banks); and
- it appears to be moving faster.
You can, of course, confirm these observations by investigating reports from gauging stations along these rivers, maintained by the U.S. Geological Survey. (See data for the gauging station serving downtown St. Paul.) But what is really happening?
It may be high and fast...: ...but (as of today) the Mississippi at St. Paul is still in a bankfull state.
Courtesy Liza Pryor
Until a river flows over its banks, it is considered to be in a “bankfull” state. In this state, the water flowing through the river is confined to a relatively fixed channel area. Simply put, floods occur because more water is being introduced into this channel from upstream, due to snowmelt, heavy rains, or a dam breach. As this added volume of water moves through a fixed area, it both increases in velocity and in depth until it overflows the banks, at which point some, but not necessarily a lot, of the volume and velocity moving through the channel are reduced.
Scientists call the rate of flow through a channel “discharge." Discharge is defined as the volume of water passing through a given cross-section of the river channel within a specified period of time.A simple equation for determining discharge is
Q = D x W x V
where Q = discharge, D = channel depth, W = channel width and V = velocity.
Looking at this equation, it is easy to see that if discharge becomes greater and channel width is fixed, then an increase in both volume and depth (or height relative to the banks) is likely to be the cause. Discharge can be measured in cubic feet per second or cubic meters per second, for example.
But is the river flowing at the same rate at the surface as it does along its banks and beds? Understanding this requires investigating some more detailed equations, as the banks and bed introduce friction, which affects the rate of flow.
To learn more about rivers and how they flow, you may want to check out the works of Luna Leopold, and M. Gordon Wolman. In particular:
- Leopold, Luna B. (2006, reprint). A View of the River. Harvard University Press; and
- Leopold, Luna B.; Wolman, M. Gordon; and Miller, John P. (1995). Fluvial Processes in Geomorphology. Dover Publications, both classics for understanding how rivers work.
Also, check out our full feature on the 2010 Mississippi River flooding.
As of 11:19am, the US Geological Survey is forecasting that the Mississippi River will crest here in downtown St. Paul at 18 feet.
New flood crest prediction, 3/17
Courtesy USGS
That would put Water Street and the lower section of Lilydale Regional Park underwater (at 14'), require secondary flood walls at the St. Paul Downtown Airport (17'), submerge much of Harriet Island (17.5'), and make Warner Road impassable due to high water.
An 18-foot crest would also make this year's flood #9, historically speaking, bumping the flood of 1986 (16.10') off the top-10 list.
Also, check out our full feature on the 2010 Mississippi River flooding.
Watching the river, 3/16/10
in Earth and Space Science, Physical Science, The Water Cycle, Weather and Climate, and Forces of Nature
All day, up in the Mississippi River Gallery, people have been stopping to look out the window and watch the river.
Here's how the US Geological Survey sees it:
Mississippi River, actual vs. forecast, 3/16/10, 1pm
Courtesy USGS
The river's rising, but not as fast as yesterday. And yesterday's rise outpaced predictions by almost a foot, but today the rise matches the predicted curve almost exactly.
So what are folks seeing out the window? Take a look.
Also check out our full feature on the 2010 Mississippi River flooding.
Watch the steps: They're a good benchmark.
Courtesy Liza Pryor
Raspberry Island: Still high and dry
Courtesy Liza Pryor
Looking upstream: You're still looking at Harriet Island. But low-lying areas of Lilydale (upstream, south side of the river) get inundated when the river reaches 14 feet or so. Right now, that's predicted to happen sometime after 7pm on Sunday, 3/21.
Courtesy Liza Pryor
Like imaginary detectives Carmen San Diego and Inspector Gadget, Will Steger travels the Earth in search of clues that point towards a changing climate.
Not many of us imagine spending our vacation in some of the coldest and most remote regions of the world, but Arctic explorer Will Steger (see http://www.willstegerfoundation.org/index.php/our-founder) has spent the last 45 years doing just that. Using his passion for extreme exploring and background in science and education, Steger’s chilly trips to Greenland, Antarctica, and the North Pole have taken him into the middle of the global climate change debate.
Will Steger, Climate Change Detective and Arctic Explorer
Courtesy Will Steger
The Earth’s icy poles are among the first and most dramatically affected areas of global climate change (see "What's the big deal about polar climate change?" below). Few humans have set foot in these important ecological systems and witnessed the changing landscapes as Steger has. Small wonder when you consider what makes his explorations “extreme.” Can you imagine waking up to -38°F temperatures in a tent buried under last night’s snowfall only to have trouble starting your camp stove because of the low-oxygen level? After you warm up enough to tunnel yourself out of your igloo, you still have to pack up your gear, wake up the dogsled team, and travel miles over huge snowdrifts (see http://www.willsteger.com/content/view/107/95/). That's intense!
“What’s the big deal about polar climate change?”
(see http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/effects/polarregions.html)
Albedo: Land and Ocean vs. Ice Surfaces
Courtesy The M Factory, Inc.
Ice acts like a mirror by reflecting sunlight. On the other hand, ocean and land surfaces act like sponges by absorbing sunlight. Surfaces that reflect sunlight, like ice, stay cool, but surfaces that absorb sunlight, like ocean and land surfaces, get warm. How much a surface reflects or absorbs sunlight is called its “albedo.”
The Earth’s icy poles are among the first and most dramatically affected areas of global climate change because rising temperatures melt ice and expose land and ocean surfaces. Can you guess what happens next? Remember that land and ocean surfaces absorb sunlight and get warm. This means that these newly exposed surfaces further absorb sunlight, get warmer, and melt more ice. This process is an example of what scientists call “positive feedback systems,” which is a fancy way of saying, “once the process starts, it creates more and more of the same results.”
Finally, want a chance to see and hear Will Steger, climate change detective and Arctic explorer, in person? You're in luck! On February 24th from noon to 1pm, Steger will be speaking at the University of Minnesota’s St. Paul Student Center as part of the Institute on the Environment’s lecture series, Frontiers in the Environment. The event is free and open to the public. For more information please see the lecture series’ homepage http://environment.umn.edu/news_events/events/frontiers.html
Dead Sea Sinkhole: Careful! Don't lean over too far!
Courtesy HoshanaSound crazy? Well it could happen. Luckily recent victims of these amazing geological features have been rescued. Massive sinkholes along the Dead Sea shoreline are merely the most recent problem in a long list of human caused environmental issues associated with the Dead Sea. Scientists continue to warn that the Dead Sea is disappearing at an alarming rate, having shrunk by one third in the last few decades. In fact it could be completely dried up in less than 50 years. The water level is dropping approximately 3 feet a year due to massive irrigation in the surrounding countries of Israel, Jordan and Palestine, which are part of the most water-stressed region in the world. Increasing populations, development and massive irrigation all affect the limited freshwater resources. The Jordan River, which used to be the main contributor of freshwater to the Dead Sea, has now been reduced to a small channel due to diversion of water for agricultural irrigation. Scientist are struggling to find ways to reduce these impacts on the Dead Sea, including the possibility of opening a canal from the Red Sea (however this has its own ecological problems).
Over 3000 sinkholes have appeared along the banks of the Dead Sea, and several thousand more are estimated to burst open soon, catching residents, tourists and livestock completely by surprise. As the water levels recede, the fragile, salty, subterranean layer of soil bordering the sea is dissolved by underground aquifers and infiltrating surface water, producing underground caves that collapse and cause massive sinkholes that suddenly appear, swallowing everything above.
Dead Sea Evaporation Ponds: Changes in the Dead Sea from 1989 to 2001. Evaporation ponds located in the southern third of the sea.
Courtesy NASA
Along with irrigation impacts, both Israel and Jordan also purposefully evaporate water from the Dead Sea in order to mine the phosphate salts for use in a variety of agricultural, chemical, and personal products. Both countries have also built hotels and resorts along the shore that use massive quantities of water for the thousands of tourists who come to the Dead Sea for its therapeutic value and other unique properties.
The Dead Sea is yet another unique body of water that will soon be lost, like the Aral Sea of central Asia, as a result of unchecked human development and poor governmental policy decisions. Will we never learn our lessons?
‘Climate change’…we just can’t get away from it these days. Carbon everywhere, rising ocean levels, floods, droughts, and never-ending ‘Seinfeld’ reruns…make it stop! To us regular folks though, the evidence isn't really seen in the day-to-day. So as Jerry would say, ”What’s the deal?”
Just like castles made of sand: USGS researcher Ben Jones measuring AK coastal erosion on the Beaufort Sea.
Courtesy Christopher Arp, USGS
Well skeptics, read on. According to researchers with the Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) at the University of Colorado, parts of the US are literally falling into the sea due to factors associated with climate change. Sure, coastal erosion happens, but this is getting ridiculous.
How do they know? Over two years, a team of researchers from CU and USGS used weather stations, GPS data, wave intensity/water temperature sensors, and time-lapse cameras to record coastal erosion between Point Borrow and Prudhoe Bay, Alaska during the summer months when the sea ice is out. In these videos, you can watch the coast crumble to the sea. That's right, you can actually see the Alaskan coast fall apart before your eyes! (watch the video)
Affected coastline: Alaska's endangered coast, with Beaufort Sea to the North.
Courtesy Goodle Maps, edited by Prescott Esquire
Why is this a big deal? It used to be that this coast would lose a handful of yards each year during the short summer season, but more recently, this coast is falling apart on the order of 30-45 feet annually. That means that between the time INSTAAR started looking at this problem and today, the coast has lost almost the length of a whole football field! And, according to the video linked above, that’s valuable real estate for migrating birds and other critters. In addition to habitat loss, think about it: our country, the US, literally falling apart. Lame.
How is this all going down? The biggest factor is the coast itself. The soil is usually 50-80% ice; the rest is silt and mossy plant material. Now, imagine a brick building where all the mortar (stuff between the bricks) melts away and you have an idea of what happens to this soil when summer heats up.
But it’s more than that: Robert Anderson, researcher with INSTAAR and CU Geographic guru tells us that there is a TRIPLE-WHAMMY at play where each ‘whammy’ works together towards coastal carnage.
Whammy 1: Longer the ice is away, the more soil melting occurs (more melting=more destruction).
Whammy 2: Longer the sea ice is away, the warmer the ocean gets (up to 60ºF, warmest temp. on record…ever).
Whammy 3: Further back the ice melts, the bigger the waves can get (called the “fetch effect”).
More stuff: The buzz on this one is crazy, just Google “Alaskan coastal erosion”. USGS did a study up there in 2007 (USGS article), Nat Geo has got another video, even Reuters is on this story. Anderson’s paper is still pending, but the researchers have presented these findings at annual American Geophysical Union meetings in ‘08 and ’09 (abstract). Check it out and let me know what you think.
I Spy Climate Change
in Earth and Space Science, Earth Structure and Processes, The Water Cycle, Weather and Climate, and Forces of Nature
A satellite image of the East Siberian Sea from USGS
Courtesy United States Geological SurveyWhen I read this story the other day, I thought to myself: why didn't I think of that? Or maybe I did think of it, but as usual no one was listening when I pitched the idea for an action-packed spy movie about climate change. Or were they?
The Central Intelligence Agency does have a bunch of high-powered satellites and other "classified" instruments, so it's possible they've been using them to eavesdrop on my conversations with friends about possible sci-fi movie plots.
What's more likely: they figured out on their own that intelligence-gathering instruments could be really helpful to scientists, who can read detailed pictures of melting sea ice, growing desserts and other phenomena to better understand how climate is changing the planet.
The C.I.A. recently confirmed that it had revived this controversial data-sharing program known as Madea, which stands for Measurements of Earth Data for Environmental Analysis. If you decode that C.I.A. code name, it means that government spies are working with climate scientists to gather images and data about environmental change, as well as its impact on human populations.
Not everyone is convinced that climate change is a real threat to national security, and so some complainers are complaining that this collaboration between scientists and the C.I.A. is a misuse of resources, but what do they know?
Really? What do they know? So much of what happens over at C.I.A. headquarters is top-secret.
Maybe the whole thing doesn't sound that action packed, but I'm telling you, if you had the right actors playing the scientists, it could be a blockbuster. And if you have the right scientists analyzing the data, it might provide really valuable insights into global environmental change.
Subscribe
I want to learn about
Science Buzz is supported by the National Science Foundation.Copyright © Science Museum of Minnesota, 2004-2010, except where noted.
Add a new comment