Swine flu spread puts World on alert
Pandemic prevention in Mexico CityCourtesy Chupacabras
No mass at Cathedral of Mexico City Sunday
In addition to churches, Mexico closed schools, museums, libraries and theaters, hoping to contain the outbreak of a swine flu variety that is killing people. Officials say as many as 81 people have died and more than 1,300 others are sickened from a new type of flu.
The virus contains genetic pieces from four different flu viruses; North American swine influenza, North American avian influenza, human influenza A N1H1, and swine influenza viruses found in Asia and Europe.
Swine flu symptoms
Symptoms of the flu-like illness include a fever of more than 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees Celsius), body aches, coughing, a sore throat, respiratory congestion and, in some cases, vomiting and diarrhea. Click this link for more key facts about swine influenza (swine flu).
Global swine flu alert
China, Russia and Taiwan plan to put anyone with symptoms of the deadly virus under quarantine. Ten students from New Zealand who took a school trip to Mexico "likely" caught this swine flu. Four possible cases of swine flu are currently under investigation in France. More than 100 students at the St. Francis Preparatory School, in Queens, New York recently began suffering a fever, sore throat and aches and pains. Some of them had recently been in Mexico.
"The United States government is working with the World Health Organization and other international partners to assure early detection and warning and to respond as rapidly as possible to this threat," Dr. Richard Besser, acting director of the CDC, said during a Friday afternoon press briefing.
How to track illnesses globally
There are several useful online resources that track health information and disease outbreaks.
- The World Health Organization (WHO) has an Epidemic and Pandemic Alert and Response (EPR) webpage.
As of 26 April 2009, the United States Government has reported 20 laboratory confirmed human cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 (8 in New York, 7 in California, 2 in Texas, 2 in Kansas and 1 in Ohio).
- HealthMap is a website that aggregates news feeds from the WHO, Google News, ProMED, and elsewhere to map out all of the disease outbreaks. (Click the box in front of influenza under "Diseases, last 30 days" to see just flu cases.)
What is a pandemic?
The WHO's pandemic alert level is currently up to phase 3. The organization said the level could be raised to phase 4 if the virus shows sustained ability to pass from human to human. Phase 5 would be reached if the virus is found in at least two countries in the same region.
"The declaration of phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short," WHO said. Associated Press
Phase 6 would indicate a full-scale global pandemic.
Sources:
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The U.S. declared a public health emergency Sunday to deal with the emerging new swine flu, much like the government does to prepare for approaching hurricanes. Homeland Security Secretary, Janet Napolitano, said roughly 12 million doses of the drug Tamiflu will be moved from a federal stockpile to places where states can quickly get their share if they decide they need it. Priority will be given to the five states with known cases so far: California, Texas, New York, Ohio and Kansas. She urged people to think of it as a "declaration of emergency preparedness." Associated Press.
Hong Kong taking strict swine flu measures
Hong Kong uses infrared scanners to measure the facial temperatures of all arrivals at its airport and at its border crossings with mainland China.
Dr. Thomas Tsang, the controller of the Hong Kong government’s Center for Health Protection, said Sunday afternoon at a news conference that any traveler who had passed through a city with laboratory-confirmed cases and who arrived in Hong Kong with a fever and respiratory symptoms would be intercepted by officials and sent to a hospital to await testing.
“Until that test is negative, we won’t allow him out,” he said.
An aide later said that the cutoff for having a fever would be 100.4 degrees, and that it would take two or three days to obtain test results. New York Times.
Click this link to see
H1N1 Swine Flu cases on Google Maps.
I thought this map was so interesting, and it seems legitimate. I sure wish I knew who the creator is, though, and where he or she is pulling information from...
The map is the work of Recombinomics, Inc. Founder and President, Henry L Niman. He earned a PhD at the University of Southern California in 1978.
He might be getting data from his own "what is new" page of aggregated swine flu links.
I also noted that in the 1200+ comments attached to the map people are linking to news data worldwide.
I started reading the comments attached to this map. Lots can be learned by reading through them. You can start from the beginning with this link.
Magnify.net has a mash-up of swine flu videos, maps, tweets, etc. all on one page.
http://swineflu.magnify.net/
Nielsen Online reported that about 2% of all Twitter posts yesterday had to do with swine flu. (See them at Magnify.net, as ARTiFactor posted above, or at Twitter directly.) The CNN article correctly points out that not all of the Twitter posts contain good information. (They aren't all bad, though: the CDC itself maintains several Twitter accounts, including this one.) It's a good reminder to consider your sources.
Are we over reacting or is this the real thing?
I've been wondering that myself, and I think we're missing at least two crucial pieces of information. (Which is why I wouldn't want to be sitting in a high-level policy meeting right now!)
More deaths have occurred in adults between 20 and 50 than epidemiologists would expect with regular old flu. (Seasonal influenza is most dangerous to the very old and the very young.) The 1918 flu was most deadly to people between the ages of 20 and 40. So that's a bit disturbing.
On the other hand, back in 1918 we were at war. Troops were living under crowded, stressful conditions and moving around the world. And back at home, authorities worried about public morale were slow to adopt public health measures to check the spread of the virus. Also, antibiotics weren't yet available, nor were antiviral drugs or mechanical ventilators, and medical staff, equipment, and supplies were in short supply in some areas already.
Nothing to do but wait and see. And, of course, wash your hands often with soap and water, and stay home and call your doctor if you develop symptoms of influenza.
Want up to the minute news? Try the Swine Flu thread on the New York Times' Lede blog.
Oh, and Minnesota Public Radio devoted an hour of the Midday program today to an interview with epidemiologist Gary Kravitz about swine flu.
I think the current state of our media hypes things like this too much. I was watching CNN last night and the reporter doing an update on this was wearing a facemask, even though he wasn't in high risk area. But the message comes across to be really afraid of this. Watching the Today show this morning, on the other hand, there were national experts saying that his should be a national concern, but people don't need to be taking extraordinary measures, at least until there are confirmed cases of swine flu in their area. It seemed a lot more measured and thoughtful approach on this issue.
Yeah, I think the cable news shows, with a need to fill a 24-hour news cycle, are really pushing this much harder than others.
The surgical mask thing...I heard epidemiologist Michael Osterholm saying that the masks don't do much to prevent you picking up the virus. If anything, they work better to prevent the spread of disease from a person with a known infection to others. And, of course, it totally depends on the type of mask. (All masks are not created equal! Minnesota's own 3M makes two respirator masks that have been shown, in some studies, to protect against viruses. Today's Pioneer Press suggested that the phones at 3M are ringing off the hook. Here's hoping it's all emergency agencies wanting to add to their stockpiles instead of individual Joes led astray by the news...) My opinion? The reporters wearing those masks on the news are just showing how "brave" they are. It's the same deal as the guys reporting in the middle of hurricanes: you're setting a bad example, but you look tough.
Here's a great analysis of the hype job that almost all media were putting into the initial coverage of the Swine flu story and that quantity and intensity of coverage = importance of story.
CNN is featuring an article about Dr. Ira Longini, who specializes in the mathematical and statistical theory of epidemics. He's built a model that simulates the spread of a fictional killer influenza.
There isn't enough information about the new swine flu yet to drop it into Longini's model and forecast how it will behave. But other simulations suggest that containment measures (staying home when you're sick, closing places where large numbers of people gather, making antivirals available to sick people) reduce the spread of viruses by up to two-thirds. And that buys time until a well-matched vaccine can be produced and distributed.
(You can watch some of these computer models running different scenarios.)
Which headline do you think will get the most attention today?
To be fair, the Centers for Disease Control remind Americans with every flu season that seasonal influenza lands 200,000 people in the hospital and kills or contributes to the deaths of 36,000 of them. That's why they recommend that a broad swath of the population get vaccinated against the flu every year. I think it's hard to miss that message; I feel like the news hammers it home every fall. But based on this Twitter feed, lots of people have. And you're right. For the first few days of this, at least, many media outlets made the flu seem much more deadly than it appears to be, which makes a headline like "First US Death from Swine Flu" all the more sensational.
That said, the emergence of this new H1N1 swine flu is newsworthy, in my opinion, for three reasons:
I'm not worried about it. I'm not stockpiling antivirals or respirators. I'm not hoarding canned foods or bottled water. I don't anticipate that I'll have to keep my family at home for weeks on end. I'm not imagining the end of the world. But I am very interested, and I'm keeping my eye on a variety of different news sources.
Reuters now has a country-by-country breakdown of 2009 H1N1 flu cases.
I agree, this is really fascinating - both because of what we're learning about the virus itself, and because it's interesting to see how new technologies (like Twitter and the maps you link to above) are being deployed in formal and informal ways during what is perceived by a lot of people as a crisis.
I'm not particularly worried about it - but there's something about watching a thing spread across the globe in real time (or very close to real time) that makes it hard to look away for very long.
Interesting, Swine Flu concerns are impacting the sports world. High school sports events have been put on hold for a week to ten days in Texas and Alabama. And in Mexico, all professional soccer and baseball games are being played with now spectators in the stands to keep people from congregating in large numbers and possibly spreading the virus. The link above to the USA Today story also includes news on cancellations and other schedule changes to sporting events being held in Mexico or involving Mexican national teams.
Here's a nice, quick information link to four questions and answers about swine flu, how big a risk it might be to you and how it spreads and reproduces.
i think that the sine flew will eventually kill a lot more people then end up being at one of themost danguruos desieses
fun
jk
Ohhh! all i have to say is that scare!!!
Now that we are a few months out from the initial "scare" it is interesting to think about what we knew, what happened and what we should look for as fall approaches. I suspect we have all been exposed to H1N1 at this point. Some of us have felt miserable for nearly a week and some of us seemed to have been lucky. Do you have a story to share?
Also, if you like maps and charts take a look at Wired Magazine for some interesting comparisons (although I think it is silly to compare it to a Stephen King book). I'm still a little worried about what will happen this fall, but it seems that this first wave was a good practice session for something more serious.
One last thing, it seems to me people have gone back to their lazy ways. Coming into work sick, sending sick kids to school/camp and not washing hands. Has anyone else noticed this?
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