Cold noses are good for preventing bird flu

Don't let your children do thisCourtesy KnOizKi
A recent study may explain why the bird flu has not become a pandemic. The human nose is too cold. Avian flu viruses prefer 104 degree F. The temperature in our noses is usually less than 90 degrees F. Critics of the study point out that it was only done in petri dishes so may not be an accurate reflection of what happens in humans.

Since the bird flu virus re-emerged in 2003, there have been only 423 reported cases. If the viruses manage to get into the lower lung, however, they replicate so quickly that 6 out of 10 victims (258) died.

The normal seasonal flu kills only 1 out of 1000 victims (250,000 to 500,000 people per year world wide).

Figuring the odds of a deadly mutation

Please comment what you think about this logic.

"When more people get the flu, the chances of a deadly mutation increases. Say the chance of a deadly mutation is one in a million. If 10,000 people get sick, the odds are 10,000/1,000,000 or 1/100. If a million people get sick the chance of a deadly mutation is almost a sure thing."

The new H1N1 virus appears to be more contagious

The percentage of contacts who catch the regular variety of flu from an infected person is between 5 and 15 percent, but current estimates for H1N1 being spread range from 22 to 33 per cent (according to WHO). Reuters via Yahoo News

As of May 15, 2009, 34 countries have officially reported 7520 cases of influenza A(H1N1) infection. World Health Organization

An intriguing mutation has been detected

The virus isolated from the second swine flu patient in the Netherlands has an intriguing mutation in a gene called PB2 that could mean that the virus has become better at spreading from person to person, a team of Dutch researchers reported on Friday on ProMED, a monitoring system for disease outbreaks. But they're the first to acknowledge that it could also be a red herring. Science Insider

You can make a difference

If you can behave in ways that prevent you from catching or spreading this new type of H1N1 flu, you will minimize the odds its changing into a more deadly form.