Stories tagged Amenhotep III

They just keep digging up cool things in Egypt these days. After last week's reports on the findings of medical scans of King Tut's mummy, yesterday archaeologists in Egypt announced that they've uncovered an eight-foot statue head of Pharaoh Amenhotep III, grandfather of Tut. Here's a link to the full details, plus photos of this amazing find. While most pharaoh statues found these days are missing noses, this huge work has it intact.

Mar
05
2007

It seems like every week there’s another medical breakthrough announced in the press – only later to fizzle when additional studies show it didn’t really hold up. Why are there so many false starts?

Dr. Peter Austin of the Institute for Clinical Evaluative Sciences in Toronto says it has to do with the way researchers use statistics. All statistical studies rely on “confidence intervals” – if an event has only a 5% chance of happening at random, then doctors can be 95% confident that it isn’t a random fluke. They assume they’ve discovered a real phenomenon, and start looking for a cause.

(For instance, a coin has about a 3% chance of landing heads five times in a row. If you had a coin that did that the first time you tried it, you’d have good reason to suspect something funny was going on, and conduct more tests.)

But Dr. Austin notes that many studies run multiple tests simultaneously. When you do that, the odds of at least one test giving an unusual result, just by chance, is very high. In our coin-flipping example, if you tested 100 identical coins by tossing each 5 times, it would be perfectly normal for at least one, and probably a few, to land all heads, without anything “funny” about them at all.

The point is, you have to look at the whole test, not just selected parts of it. And doctors – and journalists – need to be more careful when presenting the results of studies, so they don’t report false relationships.